From Registration to Representation: Latino Turnout as Path to Power
Drafted by Sharon Rayburn and Juan Pozo, Policy and Legislation Fellows Edited by Dr. Ray Serrano, Director of Research and Policy
As we move from registration deadlines to early voting, Latino voter turnout holds incredible weight in shaping the 2024 election. In examining Latino voter mobilization, we see a clear trajectory toward greater influence, as underscored by patterns from the 2020 Presidential and 2022 midterm elections. With Latinos emerging as a powerful force in the electorate, their engagement could prove to be the critical factor for any candidate aiming for victory. As their influence continues to grow, it becomes clear that successful candidates must prioritize outreach and mobilization efforts within this demographic to harness their potential impact on election outcomes.
The high voter turnout in the 2020 election set a powerful standard for 2024—a benchmark we should not only aim to match but surpass. Fueled by pandemic-driven changes like expanded mail-in voting, extended early voting, and more accessible ballot drop boxes, 2020 saw the highest turnout in over three decades. This experience clearly illustrates that when we remove barriers and motivate citizens, Latinos will respond by voting in historic numbers. As we look ahead to 2024, matching or surpassing that turnout is essential, especially considering Biden’s 59% share of the Latino vote in 2020. Latino turnout is now more vital than ever for any candidate hoping to secure victory, emphasizing the urgent need for effective engagement and mobilization within this influential demographic.
In the 2020 election, nearly 66% of the voting-eligible population turned out, while 49% participated in the 2018 midterm elections—both representing the highest turnout rates among Latinos for presidential and midterm elections since the early 20th century. However, turnout dipped to 46% in the 2022 midterms. While the decrease from 2018 to 2022 may seem minor, it raises concerns, particularly because the reasons for this decline remain unclear. There's apprehension about whether a similar trend could emerge in the 2024 presidential election.
Factors contributing to this decline in voter turnout might include shifting political priorities, growing political distrust, or a general sense of apathy among the electorate. Moreover, following the unfounded claims of widespread election fraud after the 2020 presidential election, we witnessed the introduction of stricter voter ID requirements and targeted actions against community members for alleged ballot trafficking. It's plausible that these voter intimidation efforts played a role in the 3% decrease in turnout from 2018 to 2022. As these intimidation efforts and voter ID barriers have intensified, it's more important than ever to mobilize voters and ensure that voices are heard at the polls. The stakes have never been higher, and engaging with the electorate is imperative for a robust democracy.
We gathered and analyzed data from these two elections, focusing on eligible, registered, and actual voters by race in each state. Eligible voters are those of voting age, registered voters are those on the rolls in their home state, and actual voters are those who cast their ballots.
In 2022, Arizona boasted the largest number of registered Latino voters among the six swing states. However, Latino voter turnout in Arizona dropped dramatically from 91% in 2020 to just 64% in 2022, mirroring similar trends seen in other battleground states. While this decline is concerning, it likely reflects typical midterm voter disengagement rather than direct effects from voter intimidation. Given that President Biden won Arizona by a razor-thin margin of about 10,000 votes in 2020, the Latino vote could again be decisive in determining the outcome of Arizona’s electoral votes in the upcoming election.
